The Kyoto Protocol: Everything You Need to Know.

The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty aimed at reducing greenhouse gases. It was signed on 11 December 1997 at the Third Annual Climate Change Conference (COP3) in Kyoto, Japan.

Let’s take a quick look at the history of the climate issue. In 1827, C. Fourrier discovered the mechanism of the greenhouse effect. Then, in the 19^th century, measuring instruments, such as reliable weather measurements dating back to the 1860s were invented and implemented. This means that we only have a century and a half of reliable climate data. However, environmental issues are becoming increasingly important in international relations. In 1968, the International Meteorological Organization was created in Vienna, which in 1950 became the WMO, attached to the UN.

In 1967, MIT published a climate report that noted a trend of global warming over the past 150 years or so and explained that it was anthropogenic. It was the first time in history that climate change was attributed to human activity, a novelty at the time. In addition, the report delves into predictions that were already alarming for the time, forecasting a temperature increase of 2.5ºC per year by 2050. They add that this would have catastrophic consequences, particularly the accentuation of the melting phenomenon, which would cause a rise in the water level of about 1.6 m. However, more than a quarter of the population lives within 15 km of the sea. This report is the first awareness of climate challenges, an awareness that was only scientific at that moment.

In the 1960s and 1970s, there was a growing awareness among citizens and society with the birth of important environmental NGOs such as Greenpeace in 1971. This citizens’ movement influenced a greater awareness in international relations, symbolized by the Stockholm Conference of 1972. This conference brought together some sixty countries and created the United Nations Environment Programme. After this conference, the states began to create a ministry or a secretariat for environmental affairs.

In 1979, UNEP organized the first World Climate Conference in Geneva. Subsequently, in 1988, the IPCC was created, funded by UNEP. This marked an important awareness throughout the world: consciousness was no longer only scientific, but had become collective and political. In 1990, the IPCC published its first report, but the data was still quite vague. The first COP took place in 1995 in Berlin. It sets quantified targets for each country or region in terms of greenhouse gases and the corresponding reductions to be achieved. This quantified commitment is followed by a series of political measures and commitments. The second COP took place in Geneva in 1996. It was held just after the publication of the second report by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), which reinforces accusations about the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. It is affirmed and recognized that:

His second was a turning point. In 1995, the IPCC published its second report, which predicted a temperature increase of 1 to 5°C. Following this alarming and worrying information, the COP3 countries decided to take more binding decisions by imposing for the first time sanctions on countries that did not respect their climate commitments: it was the Kyoto Protocol.

In 1997, the Conference of the Parties held its third year in Kyoto. For the first time in human history, a restrictive protocol was developed to control CO2 emissions in more than 100 countries. The Kyoto Protocol is an extension of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).  Its main and initial objective was to achieve a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gases of at least 5%in countries committed to the Convention during the 2008-2012 commitment period, compared to 1990 levels.

The objectives are quantified: to reduce global greenhouse gases by 5.2% by 2020, taking the year 1990 as a reference. For the European Union, this target translates into a total reduction in its emissions of 8%. Flexibility mechanisms are also being considered to help signatory countries develop the maximum number of ways to reduce their own emissions. They will lead to the creation of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and Joint Implementation Mechanisms (JI).

For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, at least 55 countries had to ratify the treaty. This was achieved in 2002, when Iceland pledged to reduce its emissions. In other words, we have had to wait 5 years to implement this protocol! It was officially ratified in 2005 at COP11 in Montreal. The eight years between 1997 and 2005 were a time of intense negotiations and clarifications on the implementation of the Protocol: establishment of the accounting methodology, emission markets, clean fund mechanisms, the monitoring and governance system, etc.

At present, 196 Parties have deposited their instruments of ratification, accession, approval or acceptance, with the notable exception of the United States. In fact, it was signed during President Clinton’s term, but it was never ratified by the U.S. Senate.

Actually, there are only 37 industrialized countries that are truly committed to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, the penalties for non-compliance have never been clearly defined. In fact, the agreement is not legally binding to date. However, the goals of the committed countries have been widely exceeded, with a 22.6% reduction in greenhouse gases.

The Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce greenhouse gases caused by human activity. The six gases listed in the treaty are:

1. Carbon dioxide (CO2), produced when carbon compounds are burned in the presence of oxygen (combustion of fossil fuels, volcanic eruptions, plants, animals and humans respiration, natural forest fires, etc.);
2. Methane (CH4), due to leaks in the management of fossil fuel deposits (emissions from coal mines, leaks during the exploitation of natural gas -methane- and incomplete burning of methane released by the oil industry); but also to the decomposition of cellulose by bacteria (anaerobic fermentation of biomass in wetlands (marshes, peatlands, rice paddies, etc.), in landfills, in the rumen of livestock, or in the incomplete combustion of biomass, especially during forest fires;
3. Two halocarbons (HFCs and PFCs): refrigerant gases used for air conditioning and aerosol propellants;
4. Nitrous oxide (N2O) from nitrogen fertilizers and certain chemical processes;
5. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), used in electrical transformers.

Developed countries or countries in transition to a market economy that have committed to limiting or reducing their greenhouse gases (Annex B Parties to the Protocol) include countries such as Germany, France, Switzerland, Japan, Canada and Russia. On average, these countries have agreed to reduce their greenhouse gases (GHG) by at least 5% over the period 2008-2012 compared to 1990 levels (except for the five countries with a different reference period).

Japan has agreed to increase this reduction goal to 6% and the EU to 8%. The European Union, which had 15 member States when it ratified the Protocol in May 2002, decided to share the burden of this objective among these States. Subsequently, most of the countries that joined the EU committed to reducing their GHG emissions with a similar goal.

The commitments of Annex B Parties are therefore considered ambitious. The Kyoto Protocol sets an amount of greenhouse gases emissions that must not be exceeded during the first so-called commitment period, from 2008 to 2012.

“The Kyoto Protocol provides up to three ‘flexibility’ mechanisms that developed countries can use to reduce their accounted emissions.”

Each Party should commit not to exceed the total allocated number of emissions taking into account the 6 gases mentioned above (on the basis of “CO2 equivalent”). All Parties were required to report on their GHG emissions by the 2008-2012 commitment period.

In addition, the Kyoto Protocol provides up to three “flexibility” mechanisms that developed countries can use. These mechanisms are added to the measures that can be implemented at the national level to reduce GHG emissions:

1. Emission permits, a mechanism that allows the sale or purchase of GHG emission rights between industrialized countries to improve the most polluting production systems. Member States set GHG emission reduction goals for each period for each affected installation through a National Allocation Plan (NAP);
2. Joint Implementation (JI), a mechanism for financing projects whose main objectives are carbon storage and GHG emission reduction. These are mainly industrial and forestry projects in Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Between two industrialized countries, it offers companies the possibility of investing in “clean projects” outside their national territory. These projects generate GHG emission credits that can be used by investors;
3. The “Clean Development Mechanism” (CDM), a mechanism that allows developed countries to meet their GHG emission reduction goals by investing in projects that reduce GHG emissions in developing countries. In return, they obtain emission credits that they can use for their own GHG emission reduction goals.

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was launched on 1 January 2005 in Europe. It is the world’s first and largest GHG emissions trading scheme. It currently covers more than 11,000 European installations.

During Phase 1 (2005-2007) of the EU ETS, the carbon price and the trading principle were defined. In Phase 2 (2008-2012), allowances were still free, but penalties for exceeding the emissions limit were toughened. Due to the inability of the EU ETS to provide a real carbon price signal, a revision for Phase 3 (2013-2020) was agreed in 2009 with many changes: a single EU emissions limit (instead of the previous national limits), auctioning allowances (to be progressively extended), inclusion of new sectors, etc.

Many scientists agree that the average temperature could increase between 1.4 and 5.8ºC in 2100 compared to 1990 (for the purposes of COP21, the pre-industrial era is taken as a reference period). The consequences of this increase could be considerable: desertification, floods, spread of diseases, extinction of animal species, etc. For this reason, many consider global warming to be the environmental challenge of the 21st century. The Kyoto Protocol illustrates the importance that the countries of the world attach to the environment and to the relationship between humanity and the natural balance of the planet.

The launch of the CO2 emission permit market raises many economic questions about the financial implications for the countries that signed the Kyoto Protocol. How will companies integrate CO2 limitation into their financial accounts and development forecasts? What financial compensation will be associated with the commitment of developing countries to participate in the collective effort to reduce greenhouse gases?

The Kyoto Protocol redraws the North-South division by exempting developing countries from climate responsibilities.

Furthermore, the Kyoto Protocol redesigns the North-South division. It exempt developing and emerging countries of crucial climate responsibilities, without financial compensation. Developing countries have a rapidly growing population and energy consumption. Industrialized countries, historically considered responsible for anthropogenic greenhouse gases, are encouraged to finance “clean projects” in developing countries if they do not meet their national targets.

The big disappointment of the Kyoto Protocol is that the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases have not ratified the treaty: the United States and China. Canada will also withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol in 2011. One of the objectives of the COPs after COP11 in Montreal was to think about the post-Kyoto period. In fact, the binding agreements were due to end in 2010. It was in Doha, at COP18, where a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 was decided.

It is important to understand that the great fear of the negotiators is not to achieve a new binding agreement that affects all countries, especially the most emitting countries. COP15 in Copenhagen, for example, was a big disappointment because expectations were so high. In the end, the United States and China refused to make their reduction targets binding, undermining the joint fight against climate change. However, COP15 in Copenhagen stated that the nations of the world wanted to keep global warming below +2°C.

Expectations for COP21, which took place in Paris in 2015, were high. In fact, the conference resulted in a historic agreement to replace the extension of the Kyoto Protocol from 2020. COP21 was for many a “historic moment” thanks to the signing of the Paris Agreement. This agreement establishes that the international community will do everything possible to keep global warming well below +2°C, or even limit it to +1.5°C.