Global warming and energy: the key role of solar energy in the global energy transition

Given the urgent need to tackle climate change, solar energy is now more than ever a key driver of the energy transition. At the crossroads of the challenges of emissions reduction, energy security and industrial sovereignty, photovoltaics is experiencing unprecedented growth. Recent data, particularly from the IPCC and the COP28 negotiations, confirm its strategic importance in the global effort to keep global warming below 1.5 °C.

In its latest synthesis report published in 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels if there is to be any hope of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. The energy sector alone is responsible for more than two-thirds of global CO₂ emissions.

In this context, the development of renewable energies, particularly solar energy, is considered essential. According to the IPCC, solar electricity production must increase sixfold by 2030 to remain on a path compatible with the Paris agreements.

COP28, held in Dubai in December 2023, marked a historic milestone. For the first time, nearly 120 countries committed to tripling their renewable energy production capacity by 2030. Solar energy is central to this commitment.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global installed solar capacity will exceed 1,400 GW in 2023, with annual growth of 34%, driven by China, the United States, India and the European Union. By 2030, this capacity should exceed 5,000 GW if the targets set at COP28 are met.

The COP Presidency has described solar energy as the ‘pivotal technology’ of the transition, capable of delivering low-carbon, modular and economically competitive electricity production, even in developing countries.

The cost of photovoltaic energy has fallen dramatically over the last two decades. According to the IEA, the discounted cost of electricity (LCOE) produced by solar energy is now lower than that of fossil fuels in most regions of the world. In 2023, the average LCOE for large-scale solar energy was $45/MWh, compared to $115/MWh for coal.

In addition to centralised production, residential and self-consumption solar installations are developing rapidly. In the European Union, residential solar installations have grown by 55% by 2023, with more than 3 million households equipped by the end of 2024.

To compensate for the intermittency of solar energy, experts from the IPCC and the IEA emphasise the importance of combining solar production, energy storage (batteries) and grid flexibility. Technological advances in lithium-ion batteries, which are now 80% cheaper than in 2010, are enabling buildings and regions to become increasingly self-sufficient in energy.

In its Green Deal 2025, the European Union has adopted a strategy aimed at equipping a quarter of solar homes with domestic storage systems by 2030.

Solar energy is not just about climate change. It also offers a concrete response to the challenges of energy security, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and social justice. By reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels, it helps to stabilise energy markets. In addition, self-consumption helps to reduce electricity bills, which is an advantage for households most exposed to energy poverty.

According to a World Bank report published in 2024, the development of decentralised solar energy in developing countries could lift 200 million people out of energy poverty by 2035.

Despite the progress made, experts agree on one point: efforts are still insufficient. The IPCC stresses that current investment in renewables must be multiplied by three or five to be compatible with sustainable climate scenarios. In 2023, $530 billion was invested in renewable energy, 45% of which was in solar energy, according to BloombergNEF. This figure is expected to rise to more than $1.5 trillion annually by 2030.

Therefore, the global solar transition has begun, but its success will depend on the stability of public policies, fair access to financing, and the ability to train a skilled workforce in all countries.

Global warming imposes a strict timetable. In this race against time, solar energy is emerging not only as a mature and competitive technology, but also as a cornerstone of the global energy transition. Provided it is deployed on a large scale, in an equitable and coordinated manner, it could enable climate commitments to be met while building a more resilient, local and fairer energy model.